Collins Stewart solar analyst Dan Ries today launched coverage of Trina Solar (TSL) with a Buy rating and $11 price target. Ries writes that his positive rating reflects the weak solar environment and ‘09 shipments below company guidance,he asserts that “as industry conditions improve…TSL will deliver consistent profitability and trend higher.”

Ries notes that his 2009 revenue forecast of $725 million is below the Street at $790 million, but that his EPS estimate of $1.51 is ahead of the consensus at $1.18. He contends Trina will be “a cost leader among makers of polysilicon modules” in 2009, and that it should be able earn a good margin even if module prices fall to $2/watt, as he thinks is likely. Ries said one concern is the balance sheet, with a net negative cash position of $219 million, which is a tad larger than the company’s market cap. But he adds that the balance sheet is “currently stable” and should improve over the next two years.

TSL today is up 27 cents, or 3.2%, to $8.80.